Andrew Timothy Robinson, Saxo Bank

Trading commentary: Saxo Bank

Andrew Timothy Robinson, FX-specialist, Market Strategist, Saxo Bank

US Industrial Production to stagnate as EZ CPI remains stable

15 September 2011
Risk continues its comeback this morning following optimistic comments from several Eurozone leaders, including Barroso, yesterday.

Premier Wen complains again; Moody’s downgrades two french banks

14 September 2011
The rest of the week will see plenty of economic data reported, but Moody's and the Chinese Premier Minister Wen have seen to it that we have action right now.

Is China coming to periphery Europe’s rescue (again)?

13 September 2011
Market sentiment reacts favourably to this possibility highlighted in the FT

10th anniversary of 9/11: Let’s look forward as well as back

12 September 2011
As we remember the victims and their families on this tenth anniversary of 9/11, let’s not just ponder the tragedy of past terror and the fear engendered by terror alerts of the present, let’s also look forward at how we can build a better economic future and free ourselves of economic fear and terror.

Bernanke still will not commit to QE3; Obama presents jobs plan

9 September 2011
The two high-profile speeches from Fed chairman Bernanke and President Obama had two different outcomes. Bernanke went short of offering more news on QE which sent risk lower while Obama a few hours later presented an ambitious plan, which topped even the USD 300 billion we mentioned in yesterday's post.

Markets eye Bernanke, Obama speeches, BoE, ECB meetings

8 September 2011
Though some interesting economic reports, including U.S. trade data, are scheduled for release today, attention will center on President Obama's speech (post market) on economic stimulus. Over in Europe, the BoE and ECB will announce rates with calls for more QE picking up pace in the U.K.

German Constitutional Court heads busy day for politicians

7 September 2011
Across Europe we have several interesting political votes going on today while in Germany the Federal Constitutional Court is scheduled to issue its rulings in three cases regarding the Eurozone's biggest member's participation in the various bailouts.

ISM Non-manufacturing heads agenda; equities attempt comeback

6 September 2011
The U.S. returns to action today after Labor Day yesterday to find battered markets, and in particular a bloodied European banking sector, which lost 5.5 percent. Unlike yesterday we do have a couple of important economic releases today, notably ISM Non-manufacturing from the U.S. and Factory Orders from Germany.

Germany’s Merkel suffers defeat in home state

5 September 2011
It is a week of public speeches - including President Obama's jobs speech on Thursday - and central bank meetings, but we ease into it today with no major speeches and no major economic releases. Furthermore the U.S. is closed due to Labor Day.

UK interest rate expectations can’t go lower; the only way is up

2 September 2011
This week's collection of fair-to-middling UK figures mean the interest rate markets are now totally convinced that UK base rates will be exactly where they are now - 0.5% - in a year's time; at least as evidenced by 3 month Libor expectations - the Sep 12 contract is trading at exactly the same price as this month's contract - the Sep 11 - at 99.08.

Non-Independent Investment Research

1 September 2011
ISM Manufacturing, the first of two U.S. heavyweights to come our way this week, Nonfarm Payrolls being the other tomorrow, has analysts fearing we are about to see the first contraction in the manufacturing sector in two years.

Coundown to nonfarm payrolls begins with ADP employment

31 August 2011
Risk got a bit of a lift after a horrible (but predictable) consumer confidence reading on the back of the FOMC Minutes, which shows that easing options were actively discussed at the meeting.

US Consumer Confidence to reflect debt concerns

30 August 2011
A stronger than expected income/spending report on U.S. consumers added to risk sentiment yesterday and again today we will have to wait until the U.S. session for the market-movers even if there are plenty of releases in the early European session as well.

QE3: will he or won’t he?

26 August 2011
Though we will get GDP reports from both the U.K and U.S., today is all about a speech in Wyoming at 14:00 GMT. There Ben Bernanke is widely expected to announce 'something', but it remains questionable whether he will go all the way and announce a third version of quantitative easing.

Stock markets quiet ahead of Jackson Hole

25 August 2011
Equities futures were mostly flat overnight as anticipation shifts more and more towards tomorrow's speech by Fed Chairman Bernanke. Add to this that today's calendar does not contain many market-movers and the case for range trading in equities ahead of the Jackson Hole speech seems a done deal. Gold, meanwhile, continues to decline and is now down 6 percent for the week and 9 percent since Tuesday's peak of 1,913.50.