Andrew Timothy Robinson, Saxo Bank

Trading commentary: Saxo Bank

Andrew Timothy Robinson, FX-specialist, Market Strategist, Saxo Bank

No surprises for RBA

5 April 2011
Today we saw the first of the central bank meetings of the week but this one did not have as great an impact as the ECB’s this Thursday. The RBA left rates unchanged at 4.75%, widely expected, and the accompanying statement remained very similar to last time with current policy appropriate and inflation consistent with target.

Is it an overbought market?

4 April 2011
Today’s Asian data releases were mostly second-tier in nature and had little bearing in activity in currency markets. We did see the EUR have a quick pop higher as stops above 1.4250 were triggered (same story in AUD above 1.04) but the rally soon ran out of steam and we were soon back to new York closing levels.

Japan forecasts surprisingly upbeat despite the earthquake

1 April 2011
The first day of a new month saw Japan release its Q1 Tankan survey. Forecasts looked surprisingly upbeat despite the earthquake but in the end, the actual data was close to estimates, with a risk that most survey replies were submitted before March 11 and thus suspending any gloomier sentiment until the next survey.

First effects of the earthquake / tsunami taking its toll on the data front

31 March 2011
Despite it being month-end and the end of the Japanese financial year, activity in the Asian session was relatively subdued. We saw early USDJPY demand into the Tokyo fix but momentum soon ran out and we were quickly back down below 83.0.

Posen calls for further expansion of QE

28 March 2011
It was a relatively slow start to the week in Asia as we run up to month-end (and the end of the Japanese financial year) and the US non-farm payroll release on Friday.

Japan intervention

25 March 2011
The most important of the JPY crosses, USDJPY, has seen the smallest four day range in years (probably – we haven’t quantified this, but a glance at a chart shows complete lack of direction after the post-tsunami roller coaster and a miniscule range).

Uh-oh, Euro

24 March 2011
Yesterday, we saw two very negative developments for the Euro – the most important being the dashed expectations of this weekend’s EU summit as the impasse over Ireland apparently remains and as the EU is apparently looking to delay a move to revamp the EFSF bailout mechanism until June.

EUR lifted by JPY cross intervention

21 March 2011
Friday’s coordinated G7 intervention was the main focus of currency markets throughout the day with the USDJPY rallying back through the 80 handle and other JPY crosses rallying alongside.

Fallout from Japan catastrophe deepens

15 March 2011
This is the last place one should look for an update on what is going on in Japan, so please consult the television and other news outlets for the latest developments.

JPY in reversal back to the weak side

14 March 2011
The initial reporting about the Japanese earthquake and resulting tsunami stressed the remoteness of the region in which it took place and how strict Japanese building codes meant a minimum of structural damage from the quake...

Data intensive Asian session

10 March 2011
The Asian session was very data intensive with the RBNZ the first event to hit the markets. The official cash target rate was slashed by 50bp to 2.50%, a touch more than recent surveys had suggested, and the NZD fell a quick 60+ points after that.

UK consumers tightening their belts after January’s New Year splurge

8 March 2011
We had a slightly busier data slate in Asia today but releases did not have much influence on currencies. Japan’s bank lending remained weak, contracting at a faster 1.7% annual rate compared to January while MOF data for portfolio flows showed weaker than expected outflows for February...

Friday’s US employment report brings something for everyone

7 March 2011
Activity in the currency markets ahead of Friday’s US employment report was definitely muted as players anticipated a very positive number following the strong inputs of the ADP report, better weekly jobless claims and improving employment components of numerous activity surveys.

April rate hike a done deal?

4 March 2011
In the post-meeting press conference, ECB’s Trichet satisfied all the EUR bulls by almost assuring that a rate hike at the April meeting was a done deal as inflation risks had moved to the upside and called for “strong vigilance” from the ECB.

Bernanke sticks to the same script

3 March 2011
In his second testimony of the week, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke stuck basically to the same script as yesterday, repeating the need for ongoing easy policy to help the economy towards a more sustainable growth path. The Q&A session...