Trading commentaries and briefings from the leading FX specialists, market analysts, traders and dealers.
7 April 2011, Mark Bolsom, Travelex
Currency markets will be driven by monetary policy announcements due from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England today. The Bank of England is forecast to leave its monetary policy unchanged, while the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 25-basis points to 1.25%.
7 April 2011, Andrew Timothy Robinson, Saaxo Bank
A busier Asian data session kicked off with Australia’s AiG performance of Construction index which disappointed with a 39.4 print from 44.6 last but this did little to derail the AUD’s meteoric rise. In contrast the employment data was very strong with a further 37.8k jobs added in March
6 April 2011, Andrew Wilkinson, Interactive Brokers
Investors are lining up currencies according to which central banker is most likely to exit first from an era of ultra-easy monetary policy. As inflation pressures mount on account of rising demand for the relatively fixed supply of commodities around the world...
6 April 2011, Mark O'Sullivan, Currencies Direct
Recent Dollar movements seemed to be reflecting hopes that the Federal Reserve would curtail its asset purchase scheme before the official deadline in June. But just released minutes of last months FOMC meeting seem to have put to bed any notion that QEII will be curtailed
6 April 2011, Mark Deans, Moneycorp
There is a disturbing similarity - and one glaring difference - between the other-worldly financial politics going on in Washington and Lisbon. Since Portugal's parliament forced the resignation of the prime minister the country has been unable to sign up for an EU/IMF bailout even if it needed one. And it does.
6 April 2011, Duncan Higgins, CaxtonFX
Yesterday’s session was an excellent one for sterling as UK services sector output came in well above forecast. The data provided a much-needed boost to the pound, which quickly recouped losses made over recent weeks.
6 April 2011, Simon Denham, Capital Spreads
The FTSE seems to be carrying on regardless even though oil remains firmly above $120 a barrel, but this time it’s metal prices that are driving mining stocks higher and there’s even a little bit of help from the banking sector this morning.
6 April 2011, Mark Bolsom, Travelex
Currency markets are trading on the outlook for interest rate differentials. The Japanese yen is suffering the greatest this morning as investors face the Bank of Japan’s two-day policy meeting, which got underway today.
6 April 2011, Andrew Timothy Robinson, Saxo Bank
Overnight we heard China announce another 25bp hike in interest rates to counter inflation pressures (fourth time since October) just at the end of a two-day public holiday raising suspicions that next week’s data may beat forecasts again (The China Securities Journal today ran a piece suggesting Chinese inflation may top 6% in coming months).
5 April 2011, Andrew Wilkinson, Interactive Brokers
Several doubts crept back in to the investment community overnight that weighed on risk appetite. Rising Asian dollars riding the tide of prosperity were pushed back on growing intervention concerns.
5 April 2011, Mark Deans, Moneycorp
The researchers are still busy out there, reaching conclusions that will come as a complete surprise to most people. This time it is University College London; a team there spent 11 years studying the working hours of 7,000 civil servants.
5 April 2011, Duncan Higgins, CaxtonFX
Sideways trading characterised yesterday’s session; a quiet start to a highly significant week. An uneventful day for the euro gave further evidence that the 0.25% ECB rate rise is fully priced in ahead of Thursday’s policy announcement. Sterling made some minor gains, perhaps a correction of over-selling in recent weeks.
5 April 2011, Simon Denham, Capital Spreads
A flat session from US markets last night means that we’re flat on the open of the FTSE this morning. Bulls just seem slightly tentative at these levels with the Dow pushing at its thirty four month high and now, just as investors saw the correction to the downside go too far, they are questioning whether the rebound has just gone “too far, too fast”.
5 April 2011, Mark Bolsom, Travelex
The biggest currency movement seen in the overnight session was against the Japanese yen. The yen continued to come under pressures as investors look forward to the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting. Japan’s finance minister said that he will continue to seek assistance from the G7 nations to stem the rise of the yen.
5 April 2011, Andrew Timothy Robinson, Saxo Bank
Today we saw the first of the central bank meetings of the week but this one did not have as great an impact as the ECB’s this Thursday. The RBA left rates unchanged at 4.75%, widely expected, and the accompanying statement remained very similar to last time with current policy appropriate and inflation consistent with target.
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